Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."